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. Финская альтернатива Зимняя война - 2010:

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What if the Winter War broke out now?
Military experts ponder what might happen in a war in 2010
By Timo Siukonen
A Russian cruise missile flies along the coast of the Gulf of Finland at a low altitude, below the range of Finnish radar.
Near Porvoo the computer-guided system turns the accelerator rocket on. The missile rises to an altitude of about 200 metres, takes its course, and finally hits the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) compound in Pasila, in Helsinki.
The blast causes death and confusion. Television and radio broadcasts are cut off.
This is an imagined Winter War in 2010. In the speculative scenario, the sides in the war are the same as they were in 1939.
The world has changed since 1939, but one thing is the same: when the crisis breaks out, the President of the Republic approves a general mobilisation, and hands over the duties of Commander in Chief of the Defence Forces to the Chief of Defence.
By decree of the President, the law of the “state of defence” is declared to be in force. The state restricts freedom of assembly and movement, as well as political and economic activities. Interference with private property and censorship become possible.
The chaos in Pasila is followed by more air strikes. The Russian jet fighters rushing to the Helsinki region at supersonic speed suffer their first losses in dogfights with Finnish Hornets.
The Defence Forces have moved the country’s leaders to safety: the President, Parliament, and the government need to be able to operate as long as possible. There are plenty of safe places in Helsinki and around the Helsinki region.
The Defence Forces call the reservists to active duty mainly to the same units that the soldiers were in as conscripts. This means that the men know each other.
However, men from the same areas do not automatically serve in the same units, as was the case in 1939. The practice was changed when 46 men from the same community of Rantasalmi were killed in the Battle of Petäjäsaari in 1940.
On the Karelian Isthmus, Russia’s motorised army charges ahead with a force in the tens of thousands, with artillery and air support. The aim is to reach the Finnish capital in two days.
However, the forward movement of the forces stops east of the Kymi River, when the Russians confront the Finnish readiness brigades concentrated in the area.
The decisive battles of the Winter War took place at the Taipaleenjoki River. In the imagined scenario for 2010 the toughest spot of the war is at Kymijoki.
No fixed front lines are established, and the Pasi armoured personnel carriers take fighters from one place to another. In addition to the Pasis, the Finns have large numbers of requisitioned lorries.
Russia brings hundreds of tanks from behind the Ural Mountains. The vehicles are not included in the conventional weapons limitation treaties. Their weaponry can also include the infamous depleted uranium armour-piercing shells.
In the Winter War, the Finns used Molotov cocktails to destroy tanks. Now they have modern anti-tank weapons with missiles, as well as German-made Leopard tanks, which have the advantage of being able to fire while on the move.
Military hospitals fill up, and numbers of Finns killed in action grow.
The highways fill up with lines of refugees heading for summer cottages and Sweden. Civilians’ mobile telephones do not work, to say nothing of the Internet.
The Russians drop paratroopers at key locations in the Helsinki region. Their aim is to disrupt the distribution of electricity, water, and food.
The paratroopers are in a hurry. The main army is supposed to reach them in a couple of days. Otherwise they will run out of ammunition and food.
Finnish special forces surround enemy units near the Malmi Airport. Urban warfare begins, with relentless battles ensuing.
The airborne forces do not only wage war - they also plunder and destroy. Many local residents get caught inside the siege, and the number of civilian deaths rapidly exceeds that of the Winter War.
The opposing sides also clash electronically. Experts on both sides use data networks to jam enemy broadcasts and protect their own. There is hacking, surveillance, and infiltration without explosives.
The war is ultimately decided in the air. The other side is hugely overpowering. Russia’s air force has more than 1,200 jet fighters, and over 700 fighter-bombers, while Finland has just over 100 fighters - 62 Hornets and 49 Hawks.
On the other hand, Finland has the advantage of home turf. The fighters have been dispersed around the country in small bases that are hidden away, with anti-aircraft missiles to protect them.
In spite of its superiority, Russia does not get the quick victory that it had hoped for.
The fighting drags on, and Finland gets plenty of diplomatic support from around the world.